Let’s imagine that there is
a new medication available for post-menopausal women. It is an effective remedy for hot flashes and
osteoporosis and lowers the risk of diabetes and colon cancer. In younger women, it may protect against
heart disease. One version of this drug
can also diminish a woman’s risk of dying of breast cancer. Potential downsides include a small increased
risk of having a stroke (12 more per 10,000) or of dying of breast cancer (about
1 more death per 10,000 with the drug).
This blog has a feature
called “Should I Be Taking This?” in which the potential side effects of a
particular medication are listed first, followed by ostensible benefits. Often the first list is quite long and the
second rather short and tentative. Some
of the medications have only been on the market for a short time so the full
extent of the risks and benefits may not yet be apparent, a situation I
discussed in “Statistics and the Twenty Year Rule.”
Against this background
hormone therapy seemed like a pretty good deal:
substantial and proven benefits associated with risks that amount to
tenths or hundredths of a percent. And
some hormone medications had been around for decades. I started taking Premarin, an estrogen-only version
of hormone therapy, in 1979 after a complete hysterectomy at age 32. The initial dosage of 1.25mg was too high and
was later reduced by half. I tried taking
even less but started getting hot flashes.
Then in 2002 the Women’s Health Initiative study of
estrogen-plus-progestin therapy was halted because of higher-than-expected rates
of breast cancer and heart attack in women using the medication; the risks of
the therapy were deemed to outweigh the benefits. When this news was released, widespread panic
ensued among women using hormone therapy.
Many abandoned it altogether. WHI
was taken as a blanket rejection of hormone therapy by the medical community,
whether researchers intended it or not.
The women who discontinued
taking these medications avoided risks but they also lost substantial benefits. Many undoubtedly experienced hot flashes
which disturbed their sleep and interfered with their ability to concentrate. People tend to joke about hot flashes but
insomnia is a big deal. Sleep is right
up there with air, water, and food among the essentials for survival. That’s why sleep deprivation is used as a
form of torture. These women were also
more likely to get osteoporosis. Sometimes
their doctors prescribed bisphosphonates to protect from bone loss but these
have been related to a rare type of femur fracture and, in a few cases, with
osteonecrosis of the jaw (disintegration of the jaw bone), although the nature
of the association is not yet clear.
Women
with a higher risk of breast cancer or stroke may not want any additional risk,
however small. My situation is
different. The Cleveland Clinic’s online
calculator of stroke risk puts mine at 3.6% over 10 years, about half the
average for women my age. Taking
estrogen may increase that risk to 3.60432%, an increment too tiny to worry
about. Decisions about medical treatment should be made on an individual basis: one size does not fit all. The hormone therapy saga is a good illustration of this point.
For those of us on hormone
therapy, the medical discussion of this issue has been like an extended good news/bad
news joke. In a recent issue of the Wall Street Journal the invaluable
Melinda Beck brings us up to date on the most recent findings. The current notion is that for younger women
the benefits may outweigh the risks. Did
doctors overseeing WHI anticipate the extreme reaction to their study? Did they
consider what the consequences would be for women who stopped taking hormones? Some of them, when quoted, sound a bit
defensive. In the WSJ article Rowan
Chlebowski, a WHI investigator, asks: “Why
would anyone want to double their risk of dying from breast cancer?” If the additional risk is tiny and the
benefits include protection from hot flashes, osteoporosis, colon cancer,and
diabetes, I’d say it was worth it.
Women are still being advised
to take these medications for the shortest time possible because of the risks,
but how much is known about longer term use of these medications? I’ve met or
read about many women like me who have taken them for decades and are doing
fine. When is someone going to study us?